The GFS (US Weather Bureau ‘Global Forecasting Service) forecast for Jeeralang Junction has had yesterday at Jeeralang Junction involving 44mm of rain for the past FORTNIGHT! Yesterday we received 44mm of rain. Our own BOM had us has having none until approx 7:00pm the day before and then suggested 1-10mm. The difference is almost universal and sufficient to seriously question their competence. Certainly if they can’t get tomorrow anywhere near right they should stop banging on about their forecasts for 100 years hence!
I usually take the average of the three models shown here (http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?station=Jeeralang+Junction.VIC&radar). If I am thinking of cutting hay/journeying to Fiordland etc, I have a closer look here (http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php). It is a little difficult to use, but if it predicts a long-term high, you can be pretty sure of staying dry.
I have not needed to take my raincoat out of my pack on my last four visits to Fiordland, one of the wettest places on earth! Elders 28 Day Rainfall is very good too for forward planning (http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindates.jsp?dc=disableCookies<=wzdist&lc=v17) You look at the bottom of Tasmani’s forecast and then add three days to let it get across the Tasman. Works well.
Incidentally, the GFS has another inch or more on the way before the end of the month. I think we can conclude that here (at least) the bushfire season is over and the autumn break is on the way!
